3
Miss Saipan
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 72
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/05/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 01/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 17/07/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |