1
Rock The Birdhouse
9yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength1%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 11/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |