1
African Warrior
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 60
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 25/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |