6
Heartbreak Game
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 77
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |