2
Roussette
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 82
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
44%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2024 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/02/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 10/04/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 20/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |