Sponge Bath
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/03/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 38% | -0.53 |