4
Bar Money
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 76
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-13 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2024 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 08/09/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 29/10/2024 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 29/04/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 13/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 27/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |