1
Devil
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 80
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 12/09/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/10/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/04/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 26/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |