6
Disguised Devil
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 77
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 13/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 07/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |