3
Laly
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 76
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |