6
Adam Five Oh
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 56
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 10th | 14th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |