4
Big Skookum
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 56
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 10% | -0.69 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |