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9

Chef Ray Wiley

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 52

Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 10/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 56 · 5f110y Fas 126 · below its mark10/05/2025 · OR 56 par10/05C6OR 56C6 @ Fairmount Park 24/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 40 · 6f Fm 126 · beat its mark24/06/2025 · OR 40 parC9 @ Fairmount Park 05/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 34 · 6f 126 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 34 par5/07C9OR 34C6 @ Hawthorne 03/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 35 · 5f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 35 parC6 @ Hawthorne 14/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 41 · 7f110y Gd 124 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 41 par14/09C6OR 41C6 @ Fairmount Park 25/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 45 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 50 · 5f Slo 126 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 50 par18/04C6OR 50C6 @ Fairmount Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 53 · 5f110y Gd 126 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 53 parC8 @ Hawthorne 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 45 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 45 par12/07C8OR 45projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Hawthorne?4th6th−2
2026-05-16Fairmount Park?10th10th0
2026-04-18Fairmount Park?1st2nd−1
2025-10-25Fairmount Park?7th8th−1
2025-09-14Hawthorne?2nd3rd−1
2025-08-03Hawthorne?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/053/0818/0412/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20257th6/168%14%-0.54
24/06/20259th25/10%0%0.00
05/07/20254th7/282%40%-0.42
03/08/20254th25/10%50%+0.50
14/09/20252nd20/10%80%+0.80
25/10/20257th15/261%14%-0.46
18/04/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
16/05/202610th25/10%10%+0.10
12/07/20264th10/147%40%-0.07