10
Ciao Tommaso
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 04/12/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 18/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |