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12

Holden Michael

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 50

Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Fair Grounds 14/02/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 26 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark14/02/2025 · OR 26 par14/02C9OR 26C9 @ Hawthorne 13/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 42 · 1m70y Fas 118 · below its mark13/04/2025 · OR 42 parC9 @ Hawthorne 27/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 49 · 1m70y Fas 118 · below its mark27/04/2025 · OR 49 par27/04C9OR 49C6 @ Hawthorne 18/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 55 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark18/05/2025 · OR 55 parC9 @ Fairmount Park 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 53 · 6f 120 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 53 par5/07C9OR 53C5 @ Hawthorne 25/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 55 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 55 parC8 @ Hawthorne 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 42 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 42 par17/05C8OR 42C8 @ Fairmount Park 16/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 34 · 5f110y 126 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 34 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 01/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 47 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 47 par1/09C6OR 47projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Fairmount Park?8th8th0
2026-06-16Fairmount Park?5th7th−2
2026-05-17Hawthorne?5th7th−2
2025-09-25Hawthorne?6th5th+1
2025-07-05Fairmount Park?1st5th−3
2025-05-18Hawthorne?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0218/0517/051/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength20%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/02/20255th16/116%20%+0.04
13/04/20255th8/158%20%-0.38
27/04/20254th7/282%40%-0.42
18/05/20257th20/10%0%0.00
05/07/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
25/09/20256th33/10%0%0.00
17/05/20265th25/10%0%0.00
16/06/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
01/09/20268th25/10%13%+0.13