2
Playground Warrior
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 52
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 01/09/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |