8
Senor Ruben
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 37
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +17.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 43% | -0.48 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 18/07/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |