11
Somethintobelieven
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 65
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 02/11/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |