1
Tower Grove Park
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 59
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |