IvyArcIvyArc
8

Greydreambeliever

4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 87

Gowran Park · Racing Again October 2nd & 3rd Race · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win since debut but runner-up 3 times at this track in handicaps this season, going down narrowly to Rion Rubette on last 2 occasions. Has largely struggled in better company since but is well suited by the conditions of this race and yard is still flying. High on the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 79 par4/103OR 79BHA78 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 78 · 7f180y Sft 138 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 78 parBHA81 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 81 · 7f Sft 131 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 81 par22/0481OR 811 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 82 parBHA81 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 7f Yie 131 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 81 par12/0681OR 81BHA85 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 85 · 7f GF 128 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 85 par1 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 7f Yie 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 85 par30/071OR 85BHA89 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 139 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 89 par1 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 89 · 7f Yie 133 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 89 par30/081OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Cork18th8th0
2026-08-07Gowran ParkBHA895th5th0
2026-07-30Galway14th4th0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA859th9th0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA812nd2nd0
2026-05-17Naas16th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1017/0530/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
08/04/20262nd15/261%93%+0.33
22/04/20262nd2/189%90%+0.01
17/05/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
12/06/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
27/06/20269th9/276%20%-0.56
30/07/20264th20/10%63%+0.63
07/08/20265th7/163%33%-0.30
30/08/20268th50/10%36%+0.36