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6

Rion Rubette

4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 88

Gowran Park · Racing Again October 2nd & 3rd Race · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over C&D in April and June, getting the better of Greydreambeliever on both occasions. Best effort since when neck second to Rebel Wave returned this venue in August, though her last effort is easily excused and, given her effectiveness here, it would be no surprise were she to make a bold bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA83 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 83 · 7f Yie 139 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 83 par22/0983OR 83BHA80 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 7f Sft 127 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Dundalk 14/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 80 · 7f Std 127 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 80 par14/1080OR 80BHA79 @ Curragh 03/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 79 · 6f Sft 131 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 79 parBHA79 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 79 · 7f Sft 129 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 79 par22/0479OR 79BHA82 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 7f Yie 132 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 82 parBHA88 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 88 · 7f GF 131 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 88 par27/0688OR 88BHA88 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 88 · 7f Goo 138 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 88 par1 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 91 · 1m30y Gd 130 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 91 par21/081OR 91projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Killarney18th8th0
2026-08-07Gowran ParkBHA882nd2nd0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA8810th10th0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA821st1st0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA791st1st0
2026-04-03CurraghBHA798th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/093/0427/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20258th6/168%36%-0.32
27/09/20254th13/266%50%-0.16
14/10/20257th25/10%25%+0.25
03/04/20268th28/10%53%+0.53
22/04/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
12/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
27/06/202610th9/153%10%-0.43
07/08/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
21/08/20268th25/10%22%+0.22