IvyArcIvyArc
2

Roaring Fire

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 87

Gowran Park · Racing Again October 2nd & 3rd Race · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Justified support when making a winning start in comfortable fashion in ordinary Naas maiden last year. Made little impact in minor event at Cork on return from 12-month absence and having been gelded but is probably best forgiven that effort having ploughed a lone furrow. Remains with potential.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 13118/09C8C0 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f Yie 13530/08C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Cork?7th7th0
2025-09-18Naas?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0930/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
30/08/20267th28/10%14%+0.14