4
Lusted
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 75
Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 250/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.38 |