1
Alice Monet
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 92
Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | BHA96 | 4th | 15th | −9 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | BHA96 | 3rd | 14th | −9 |
| 2025-09-26 | Dundalk | 1 | 9th | 9th | −0 |
| 2025-08-21 | York | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Leopardstown | BHA87 | 1st | 11th | −8 |
| 2025-07-09 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 29/05/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |