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7

Caught U Sleeping

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 102

Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found improvement when winning listed race at Naas in May and run creditably in defeat since, latest when 2 lengths third of 8 to Believed in Give Thanks Stakes at Cork last time. Place claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 7f Goo 12324/08C81 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 1281 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m Hvy 12821/1011 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 97 · 7f42y Yie 128 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 97 par1 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 96 · 1m Gd 128 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 96 par4/051OR 961 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 1m2f84y Goo 128 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 92 par1 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 101 · 1m2f84y Gd 128 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 101 par24/061OR 1011 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 102 · 1m4f GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 102 par1 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 102 · 1m4f Goo 125 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 102 par14/081OR 102projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Cork13rd3rd0
2026-07-04Newmarket13rd3rd+0
2026-06-24Naas12nd2nd0
2026-05-09Naas11st1st−0
2026-05-04Curragh18th8th0
2026-04-12Leopardstown18th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0812/0424/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
13/09/20253rd16/116%71%+0.56
21/10/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
12/04/20268th7/163%42%-0.21
04/05/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
09/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
24/06/20262nd6/168%75%+0.07
04/07/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
14/08/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02