2
Faiyum
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 105
Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Gowran Park | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Gowran Park | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-25 | Naas | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-13 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 13/05/2025 | 1st | 30/100 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 25/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 78% | -0.18 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 63% | -0.34 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.08 |