3
Hollys Graces
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 92
Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gowran Park | BHA87 | 2nd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-04-23 | Dundalk | BHA88 | 8th | 18th | −8 |
| 2025-10-12 | Naas | 1 | 17th | 17th | −0 |
| 2025-09-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2025-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 9th | 9th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +11.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/05/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 19/06/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 12/10/2025 | 17th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |