4
Kalixa
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 86
Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | 1 | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Bellewstown | BHA83 | 3rd | 12th | −8 |
| 2025-06-02 | Gowran Park | BHA84 | 7th | 16th | −8 |
| 2025-05-10 | Naas | 1 | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-04-28 | Naas | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2024 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 19/10/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/04/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/05/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 02/06/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 30/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |