9
Pollenca
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 92
Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-01-09 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 13th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -14.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 04/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |