10
Saga Gaga
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 97
Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲5
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gowran Park | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA90 | 1st | 11th | −8 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 7th | 16th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |