IvyArcIvyArc
11

Sky Watch

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 96

Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y

#11

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden winner at Dundalk at the third attempt last year and has taken her form up to a useful level this season, third in both the German 1000 Guineas in May and listed race at Killarney in July. Shaped as if amiss last time, though, and needs to improve on those earlier efforts to feature.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Plumpton 20/09/2015 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 103 · 3m1f152y Gd 161 · below its mark20/09/2015 · OR 103 par20/094OR 1034 @ Plumpton 02/11/2015 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 102 · 3m1f152y Goo 165 · below its mark02/11/2015 · OR 102 par4 @ Ludlow 23/11/2015 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 105 · 2m7f171y Goo 166 · below its mark23/11/2015 · OR 105 par23/114OR 105C8 @ Curragh 04/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 6f Goo 128C8 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f Sft 12827/10C8C8 @ Dundalk 21/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m Std 1281 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m Gd 128 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 81 par4/051OR 811 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 96 · 1m40y Gd 128 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 96 · 1m1f Gd 126 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 96 par29/081OR 96projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Curragh114th14th0
2026-07-15Killarney13rd3rd−0
2026-05-04Curragh15th5th0
2025-11-21Dundalk?1st10th−7
2025-10-27Galway?3rd12th−7
2025-06-04Curragh?6th15th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/094/064/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20154th6/168%50%-0.18
02/11/20152nd9/276%80%+0.04
23/11/20153rd8/158%78%+0.20
04/06/20256th7/163%58%-0.05
27/10/20253rd13/266%82%+0.16
21/11/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
04/05/20265th50/10%64%+0.64
15/07/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
29/08/202614th40/10%0%0.00