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6

Syzygy

4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 95

Gowran Park · Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) · 1m 1f 100y

#9

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made the frame at listed and Group 3 level this season, but has been held back by slow starts on last 2 starts and faces a tough enough task as it is here without throwing that potential variable into the mix. Must improve.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA61 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 61 · 1m Sft 128 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 61 par4/1061OR 61BHA69 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 25 · OR 69 · 1m2f Hvy 135 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 69 parBHA77 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 25 · OR 77 · 1m Hvy 119 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 77 par15/0377OR 77BHA82 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 142 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 82 parBHA83 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 83 · 1m2f63y Yie 143 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 83 par18/0583OR 831 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 1m30y Goo 135 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 82 par1 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 98 · 1m1f Goo 132 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 98 par16/071OR 981 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 98 · 1m30y Gd 130 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 98 par1 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 97 · 1m1f Gd 133 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 97 par29/081OR 97projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Curragh17th7th0
2026-08-21Killarney19th9th−0
2026-07-16Leopardstown14th4th0
2026-06-07Navan12nd2nd−0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA836th15th−8
2026-04-12LeopardstownBHA823rd12th−8

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1012/0416/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
21/10/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
15/03/20263rd16/116%92%+0.76
12/04/20263rd15/261%88%+0.27
18/05/20266th7/282%50%-0.32
07/06/20262nd50/10%88%+0.88
16/07/20264th22/10%40%+0.40
21/08/20269th12/137%11%-0.26
29/08/20267th80/10%54%+0.54