11

Jolie Cailin

3yo Filly · 9-3

Gowran Park · SIS Maiden · 1m 1f 100y

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed ability on her debut at Gowran (1m) in May but well beaten at Navan 108 days later.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1m Goo 12920/05C8C8 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR - · 1m30y Gd 1295/09C8projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Navan?12th12th0
2026-05-20Gowran Park?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/055/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength47%

Delivery trend +11.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20265th14/126%50%+0.24
05/09/202612th66/10%35%+0.35