6
Guinelot
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 67
Gowran Park · Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 100y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: BHA71
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Curragh | BHA71 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -30.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/08/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |