5
Hassaniya
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 68
Gowran Park · Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 100y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | BHA68 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA69 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | BHA69 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA70 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.38 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.26 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 31/07/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |