1
Java Wood
6yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 73
Gowran Park · Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | BHA73 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | BHA69 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA70 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA70 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | BHA62 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA62 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 24/05/2026 | 12th | 15/2 | 61% | 39% | -0.22 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 28/07/2026 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 31% | -0.35 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |