9
Make The Tide
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 64
Gowran Park · Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA53 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA55 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA58 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA61 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Dundalk | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -8.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 23% | +0.18 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 95% | +0.04 |