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4

Moyassr

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65

Gowran Park · Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 100y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 times for Paul W. Flynn this year and positive start for this yard when runner-up at Navan and Laytown, just failing at latter course. Remains of interest back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA61 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 61 · 1m Gd 131 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 61 par15/0561OR 61BHA60 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 60 · 1m1f210y Gd 130 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 60 parBHA67 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 67 · 1m1f Sft 119 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 67 par11/0667OR 67BHA67 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m6f80y Gd 137 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 67 parBHA66 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR 66 · 1m123y Yie 136 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 66 par28/0766OR 66BHA65 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 65 · 1m1f Goo 135 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 65 parC7 @ Roscommon 18/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 63 · 1m2f94y Gd 126 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 63 par18/08C7OR 63BHA60 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 60 · 1m20y Goo 142 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 60 parBHA62 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 6f Std 156 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 62 par10/0962OR 62projClass-projected finish: 8th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10LaytownBHA622nd2nd0
2026-09-02NavanBHA602nd2nd0
2026-08-18Roscommon?8th8th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA6514th14th0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA6616th16th0
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA676th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0515/0718/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20265th17/255%71%+0.16
28/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
11/06/20265th9/153%33%-0.19
15/07/20266th14/126%50%+0.24
28/07/202616th33/10%6%+0.06
06/08/202614th33/10%38%+0.38
18/08/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
02/09/20262nd7/282%93%+0.12
10/09/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02