7
Navajo Point
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 62
Gowran Park · Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 100y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | BHA62 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | BHA56 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA57 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA58 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Roscommon | BHA65 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 3-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2024 | 13th | 200/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 17/10/2024 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 06/04/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 12/05/2025 | 15th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 47% | -0.11 |