3
Pepper Noir
5yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 68
Gowran Park · Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 100y
#14
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | BHA70 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dundalk | BHA72 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Dundalk | BHA73 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Dundalk | BHA74 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 8-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 02/06/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/12/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 06/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/04/2026 | 18th | 18/1 | 5% | 23% | +0.17 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |