8
Queen Aethelflaed
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 62
Gowran Park · Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 100y
#12
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA65 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA66 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA60 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA59 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA64 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 10-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 46% | -0.33 |
| 18/05/2026 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 21% | -0.44 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.20 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 77% | -0.02 |
| 01/07/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 28/07/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |