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19

Duchess Anne

5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 41

Gowran Park · BOYLE Sports Home Of Early Payout Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has responded well to positive rides this season, going close to a first win at Punchestown on Tuesday, though her best efforts have been over a little bit further than this. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 01/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m4f17y Yie 1301/07C8C8 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f135y Goo 138BHA50 @ Navan 06/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 50 · 1m2f10y Gd 133 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 50 par6/0950OR 50BHA47 @ Navan 08/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 47 · 1m2f30y Yie 129 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 47 parC8 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 43 · 1m1f100y Hvy 133 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 43 par20/10C8OR 43BHA40 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 40 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 40 · 1m1f110y Goo 122 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 40 par25/0740OR 40BHA43 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 43 · 1m20y Goo 125 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 43 parBHA41 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 41 · 1m1f30y Goo 123 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 41 par15/0941OR 41projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA412nd2nd0
2026-09-02NavanBHA438th8th0
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA402nd2nd0
2026-07-22NaasBHA404th4th0
2025-10-20Gowran Park?6th6th0
2025-10-08NavanBHA4714th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/078/1025/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1961% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength91%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/07/20256th50/10%55%+0.55
21/07/20258th28/10%13%+0.13
06/09/202511th25/10%44%+0.44
08/10/202514th18/15%19%+0.13
20/10/20256th150/10%29%+0.29
22/07/20264th22/10%82%+0.82
25/07/20262nd9/276%92%+0.15
02/09/20268th9/276%53%-0.23
15/09/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34