14
Mogwli
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 42
Gowran Park · BOYLE Sports Home Of Early Payout Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 13.7 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Leopardstown | BHA47 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Killarney | BHA52 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | BHA58 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | BHA61 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA62 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | BHA62 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1944% of fieldRange 12-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 16/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 84% | +0.84 |
| 02/11/2025 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 15/03/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 28/03/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/04/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 12/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 17th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |