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12

Real Petite

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 46

Gowran Park · BOYLE Sports Home Of Early Payout Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first win over C&D in June. Unable to match that form since but shaped better than the distance beaten suggests back here last time and she's back on a winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 9.6)

Highest class: BHA46
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 2m60y Yie 1474/10C8C0 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 2m46y Goo 145C8 @ Punchestown 31/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 90 · 2m105y Yie 147 · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 90 par31/12C8OR 90BHA50 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 19th of 19 · OR 50 · 1m4f180y Gd 132 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 50 parBHA46 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 46 · 1m Yie 129 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 46 par1/0646OR 46C9 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m Yie 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 53 parBHA53 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m1f GF 135 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 53 par18/0653OR 53BHA52 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 52 · 1m1f135y Goo 123 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 52 parC9 @ Gowran Park 01/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 50 · 1m Yie 132 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 50 par1/09C9OR 50projClass-projected finish: 10th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Gowran Park?6th6th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA528th8th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA5313th13th0
2026-06-12Gowran Park?6th6th0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA461st1st0
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA5019th19th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1015/0518/061/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1983% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20258th125/10%36%+0.36
14/10/20258th200/10%0%0.00
31/12/202512th200/10%8%+0.08
15/05/202619th66/10%0%0.00
01/06/20261st50/10%100%+1.00
12/06/20266th20/10%62%+0.62
18/06/202613th12/137%8%-0.29
20/07/20268th20/10%36%+0.36
01/09/20266th12/137%67%+0.30