15
Sunday Sovereign
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 42
Gowran Park · BOYLE Sports Home Of Early Payout Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA45 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | BHA47 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | BHA49 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Roscommon | BHA48 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | BHA51 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Navan | BHA54 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1956% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 04/08/2025 | 16th | 11/2 | 71% | 12% | -0.59 |
| 30/08/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 06/09/2025 | 18th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/10/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 27/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 05/06/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |