4
Brother Brad
9yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |