2
Malbec
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 13/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |