3
Chaplin
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 82
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 17/05/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |