Surf's Up
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 88
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |