Velociraptor
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 84
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 11% | -0.71 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 29/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 27/07/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 55% | -0.36 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |